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Could climate change be turning up the heat on crime?

An Australian study suggests that we could see a staggering 1.64 million additional crimes by the end of the century if global temperatures continue to rise.  

Researchers found that as the mercury climbs, so does the likelihood of conflict. 

So what’s the connection between heat and criminal behaviour? Does heat make us act out? 

On this episode of The Briefing, we chat with Associate Professor Lindsie Arthur from the University of Melbourne’s School of Psychological Science to unpack the science behind it all.

Professor Arthur said this “heat hypothesis” suggests that heat affects our behaviour, making conflicts like road rage, theft, and domestic violence more common.

The study, conducted over 18 years across 3,000 Australian postcodes, estimated that for every standard deviation increase in temperature, crime rates rise correspondingly. 

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“What’s really clear from the literature is that heat is a threat multiplier. So heat itself is unlikely to lead to large increases in violence in particular,” she said.

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“For example, people who work in crops or livestock, if heat is affecting their income and then that is affecting their stress levels, then we might see higher rates of violence and aggression.”

Professor Arthur said the findings add to the growing list of climate change’s societal impacts. 

It is clear that global warming could have significant economic and social consequences.

She suggests that addressing the root causes of the problem will be both more effective and more challenging.

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